LIFE EXPECTANCY REPORTS

Lawyers request life expectancy reports when a person’s risk of death has changed due to an accident or negligence. The effects of an accident on activity and obesity would need to be calculated to establish likely loss of life expectancy due to the accident. In more complex cases there may be multiple risks to life expectancy such as direct effects of the injury and behavioural changes. 

Another area where life expectancy reports are necessary is when care needs are assessed. The risk of overestimating the life expectancy is that the award will last decades longer than the person. Equally underestimating can cause the care to run out before they die leaving them in poverty. Where the claimant has died and they were caring for a dependent elderly person the increased costs of that person’s care may be material. It is important to ensure that the expert deals with all the material issues.

A life expectancy report is based on age and sex and the ONS tables then is adjusted for risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer and accident as well as any medical condition they have. The calculations must be performed for each risk and based upon the best available actuary evidence. The expert’s working and assumptions must be clear and easy to follow so that the court can alter the estimate if new information becomes available. 

Cancer risk can be derived from population data and then compared with the person’s risk. Where their risk is significantly different from the population data the excess or reduced risk must be calculated as a number of days. This variation can be added or subtracted from the ONS data to give a new estimate. For a young person a small increase such as doubling of the lifetime risk of cancer can be significant in terms of life expectancy. 

Cardiovascular risk requires a calculation of baseline risk and then predictions based upon the effect of treatments. Risk calculators such as QRISK3 can give lifetime predictions but must be adjusted with chance of compliance. A person who has a long history of poor compliance or behaviour problems may live less long than a person who takes their medication properly and follows a healthy lifestyle. 

Risk of accidental injury will depend on behavioural factors such as work, hobbies and risk taking. Frailty is a key aspect of the assessment as the risk of injury following an accident increases with frailty. Specific diseases such as balance problems, visual problems, osteoporosis and eating difficulties can all be associated with a raised risk. The risk of suicide is increased by chronic pain and severe enduring mental illness. 

Life expectancy is often included in a disability report as an issue that the solicitors may wish to address. A formal life expectancy report is a systematic and detailed assessment of all the risk factors. It is important to check that the expert has fully addressed all the potential factors for life expectancy.